US-Mexico Trade Talks Zero In on $3 Billion Cattle Flow as Trump Threatens USMCA Exit
Updated
Updated · Fortune · Jun 21
US-Mexico Trade Talks Zero In on $3 Billion Cattle Flow as Trump Threatens USMCA Exit
3 articles · Updated · Fortune · Jun 21
Summary
June 16-17 talks between U.S. and Mexican negotiators shifted to agriculture, with beef emerging as a key pressure point ahead of the July 1 USMCA review deadline.
More than $3 billion in U.S. cattle imports from Mexico and Canada helped stabilize supply in 2024, but live cattle imports fell over 50% in 2025 and Mexican feeder-cattle shipments have dropped more than 80% in 2026.
Ground beef prices are already up more than 20% since January 2025 as the U.S. herd sits at its smallest since the 1950s, squeezed by drought and a screwworm outbreak that has spread into Texas and New Mexico.
A U.S. withdrawal from the 2020 pact could let Mexico and Canada impose tariffs and tighter inspections, disrupting cattle that often cross borders multiple times before slaughter.
That risk extends beyond imports: Mexico bought more than $1.3 billion of U.S. beef in 2025 and Canada $874 million, leaving ranchers and farm groups pressing Washington to preserve the deal.