Jackson Suber Shoots 69 to Hold 2nd at 6-Under in First Open Links Test

Q: With favorites struggling, can a +35000 longshot actually win the Open Championship?

Yes. A +35000 longshot can realistically win the Open Championship, even if it remains unlikely. The strongest evidence is historical. The Open has produced some of golf’s biggest major upsets, including Ben Curtis at roughly 300-1 in 2003 and Todd Hamilton at 200-1 in 2004. Louis Oosthuizen also won at around 200-1 in 2010, while more recent Open winners such as Brian Harman, Shane Lowry and Zach Johnson were all well outside the favorite tier. Among the majors, The Open has a reputation for being especially vulnerable to surprise winners because links golf and weather can disrupt the usual hierarchy. That matters even more at Royal Birkdale, where firm conditions, wind, pot bunkers and a premium on precise ball-striking can reward specialists and expose stars. The current leaderboard reflects that volatility. Jackson Suber, who opened at +35000 and is making his Open debut, leads at 5-under after a 65. Dan Brown, another pre-tournament longshot, is one back. Meanwhile, several marquee names are already under pressure, with Justin Rose at +5 and Rory McIlroy over par early in his round. That does not make a longshot likely to finish the job. Four rounds at a major usually favor elite players, and contenders such as Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young and Bryson DeChambeau are still close enough to take control. But with favorites struggling and history showing The Open is unusually open to outsiders, a 350-1 winner is clearly possible.

3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jul 17

A 69 kept Jackson Suber at 6-under through 36 holes and in second place after the 26-year-old briefly led by two shots early Friday.
Three straight three-putt bogeys at the 6th, 7th and 8th knocked him from 6-under to 3-under, but he steadied after checking the leaderboard and seeing nobody pulling away.
Back-to-back birdies from about 20 feet at the 10th and 11th restarted the round, and birdies on both back-nine par fives offset another dropped shot at the 13th.
Royal Birkdale is Suber's first trip to Europe and his first real links test—he had not played links golf before a Monday practice round—yet he remains in contention after qualifying via a tie for fourth at the Canadian Open.