Kasparov Warns Putin Will Escalate War After September Vote With Baltic Incursion
Updated
Updated · POLITICO Europe · Jul 15
Kasparov Warns Putin Will Escalate War After September Vote With Baltic Incursion
1 articles · Updated · POLITICO Europe · Jul 15
Summary
September’s Russian parliamentary election could be followed by a wider military move, with Garry Kasparov warning Putin is more likely to target the Baltics than pursue peace with Ukraine.
Kasparov said rising pressure on Russia makes escalation more likely, arguing any settlement short of a Russian defeat would only give Moscow time to regroup.
Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian military logistics and energy infrastructure, a campaign Kyiv hopes will strengthen its hand in any future negotiations.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said those attacks have already made Russia weaker, underscoring a split between hopes for leverage and fears of a broader war.
Is Putin's escalation threat a strategic bluff, or a final, desperate gamble for victory in Ukraine?
Will a new Russian mobilization turn the tide, or just feed Ukraine’s advanced drone warfare?
12-Month Threat Outlook: Russian Hybrid Warfare, NATO’s Strategic Dilemma, and the Urgency of Deterrence
Overview
The Euro-Atlantic security environment is facing immediate and evolving threats, with Russia's hybrid warfare tactics posing significant risks to NATO's eastern flank. These tactics include leveraging illegal migration with Belarus to create social and political instability, diverting resources from other security concerns. Russia has also disrupted civilian aviation by using shadow ships to launch drones, showing a willingness to interfere with critical infrastructure. These actions highlight how the consequences of Russia's aggression extend beyond the battlefield, challenging NATO's resilience and forcing the alliance to adapt its defensive posture to maintain security and cohesion.