Updated

Updated · FOX 13 Tampa · Jul 20

Tropical Depression Two Nears Florida Gulf Coast, Set to Become Storm With 30 mph Winds Monday

Updated

Updated · FOX 13 Tampa · Jul 20

Tropical Depression Two Nears Florida Gulf Coast, Set to Become Storm With 30 mph Winds Monday

Q: What crucial data will Hurricane Hunters seek to predict this new storm's true path and power?

Hurricane Hunters will be looking above all for real-time measurements of the storm’s winds and pressure, because those are the key clues to both its track and its strength. When the aircraft flies into Tropical Depression 2, crews will drop instruments called dropsondes through the system. Those devices measure wind speed and direction from flight level to the ocean surface, along with pressure, temperature and humidity. The most important readings are usually the storm’s core winds, the central pressure, and how pressure changes across the circulation, since those reveal how organized and powerful the system really is. That data also helps forecasters determine where the center is located and how the surrounding steering currents are moving it. In a sprawling, still-weak system like this one, that can make a major difference in predicting whether it stays near the Florida Panhandle, shifts west, or strengthens faster than expected. The National Hurricane Center uses those aircraft observations to improve computer models and refine official forecasts. In short, Hurricane Hunters are seeking the storm’s true center, its wind field, and its pressure structure, supported by temperature and humidity profiles, to better judge its path, intensity and flood-producing potential.

Q: Why is the biggest threat from this new tropical depression not its wind, but life-threatening water?

The greatest danger from Tropical Depression 2 is likely to be water because the system is weak in wind but rich in tropical moisture, slow-moving, and tracking near the Gulf Coast, where even modest storms can produce dangerous flooding. The National Hurricane Center’s initial estimate puts the depression’s winds near 30 mph, which is below tropical-storm strength. That limits the wind threat compared with stronger cyclones. But forecasters expect widespread heavy rain from western Florida to Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, with totals of 2 to 5 inches and locally higher amounts. Slow movement increases the risk that rain will fall over the same areas for hours, overwhelming drainage systems and triggering flash flooding. Coastal geography also raises the water threat. Along the Gulf Coast, shallow waters and low-lying terrain can allow a broad, weak system to push water inland more efficiently than its wind speed alone might suggest. That means storm surge, coastal flooding, dangerous surf and rip currents can become life-threatening even without hurricane-force winds. This is a common pattern in tropical systems: water kills more often than wind. The NHC and emergency officials routinely stress that freshwater flooding and storm surge are often the deadliest hazards, including in weaker storms. In this case, the combination of heavy rainfall, possible surge, and hazardous beach conditions makes water the primary concern.

3 articles · Updated · FOX 13 Tampa · Jul 20

110 nautical miles south of Panama City early Monday, Tropical Depression Two was nearly stationary with 30 mph sustained winds and is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later in the day.
The National Hurricane Center said the system is gradually organizing, with a 1007-millibar central pressure, 8-foot seas and scattered strong thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf.
Its center is expected to drift northwest or north-northwest before turning westward, moving near or along the northern Gulf Coast over the next several days; forecasters still see uncertainty over how much it strengthens.
Florida's Gulf Coast is already seeing swells that could trigger life-threatening surf and rip currents, while the Tampa Bay area is expected to face mainly showers, thunderstorms and beach hazards rather than major wind impacts.