Tropical Storm Bertha Batters Florida Gulf Coast With Strong Winds as Storm Surge Triggers Closures

Q: Can a massive Saharan dust cloud stop Tropical Storm Bertha from becoming a major Gulf Coast hurricane?

Probably yes, but not by itself. Forecasters say the environment around Tropical Depression Two, expected to become Bertha, is unfavorable for major strengthening. The key factors are dry air, increasing wind shear and the storm’s broad, poorly organized circulation. A Saharan dust plume matters because it carries very dry, stable air that can choke off thunderstorms and make it harder for a tropical system to build a strong core. That same air mass is also often linked with stronger winds aloft, which increase shear and disrupt storm structure. That said, the dust cloud is not a guarantee that Bertha cannot strengthen. Tropical systems can still intensify if they find a pocket of warm water and remain organized long enough, especially if they stay farther south over the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center outlook indicates gradual strengthening is likely, but rapid intensification is not the favored scenario. Current projections keep Bertha closer to a modest tropical storm, with some forecasts near 50 mph around Louisiana, rather than a major hurricane. So the best reading of the forecast is that Saharan dust is one important reason Bertha is unlikely to become a major Gulf Coast hurricane, but it is part of a broader set of hostile conditions, especially wind shear. Residents should not focus only on category risk: even a weaker tropical storm can still bring dangerous surf, rip currents, storm surge, flooding rain and isolated tornadoes along the Gulf Coast.

3 articles · Updated · USA TODAY · Jul 22

Milton, Florida, closed Carpenter’s Park, Russell Harber Landing and the Riverwalk on July 22 as Tropical Storm Bertha pushed storm surge onto the Gulf Coast.
Bertha’s center stayed well offshore Wednesday, but its showers and thunderstorms stretched across several hundred miles, keeping much of the weather over the Gulf.
The National Hurricane Center said the main threats remained gusty winds, heavy rain, storm surge and rough, dangerous surf, with beaches around Panama City and Pensacola flying double-red flags.
The storm had already been weakening under wind shear, yet earlier forecasts still warned of coastal flooding and tropical-storm impacts from Florida westward along the Gulf Coast.