WTI and Brent crude futures climbed about 13% in the seven days through July 17, marking their biggest weekly gain in several months.
That oil surge could lift inflation enough to push the Federal Reserve toward rate hikes this year, a shift that has historically pressured equities.
Across the last nine Fed tightening cycles, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell an average 10% and 12% within three months of the first hike.
Midterm years have also brought deeper drawdowns over the past 40 years, with average peak-to-trough declines of 17% for the S&P 500 and 24% for the Nasdaq.
History still favors staying invested: after first closing in correction territory, the S&P 500 returned 18% over the next year on average and the Nasdaq 21%.