RBA Hike Odds Double to 80% by November as Brent Nears $90 on US-Iran War
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jul 21
RBA Hike Odds Double to 80% by November as Brent Nears $90 on US-Iran War
2 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jul 21
Summary
Markets now price an 80% chance of an RBA rate rise by November, up from 16% to nearly 30% for the Aug. 12 meeting over the past two weeks.
Brent crude has surged 23% to near $90 a barrel after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed, lifting Australian pump prices as diesel rose 40 cents in July to about A$2.10 a litre and unleaded climbed 25 cents to A$1.75.
ANZ and CBA analysts say depleted oil inventories and threats to Red Sea and Hormuz flows have left the energy market at a "critical juncture," with oil potentially hitting $100 soon and $150 if disruption lasts into late August.
That shock would add a stagflationary pulse to Australia, where growth is already forecast to slow to 1.5% this year, though CBA still sees at most one further rate hike and possible fuel-tax relief if prices spike.