Manila talks put Southeast Asia’s energy exposure at the center after Marco Rubio told ASEAN ministers Iran’s bid to control the Strait of Hormuz and charge tolls could endanger the global economy.
About 80% of crude oil and nearly 90% of LNG moving through Hormuz in 2025 went to Asian markets, the IEA said, calling the war-driven shock a wake-up call for the region’s energy security.
Rubio said Iran has also broken commitments under a collapsed ceasefire and is still reaching out for talks, while warning Washington will not tolerate attacks on ships or Americans.
The Manila meetings widened beyond Iran: Quad ministers reaffirmed maritime security cooperation, Rubio called a new China-Philippines shoal clash escalatory, and he is due to meet Russia’s Sergei Lavrov on Ukraine Thursday.
As the conflict cripples global trade, how close is the region to an all-out war beyond just U.S. and Iran?
Will the U.S. toll on the Strait of Hormuz set a new precedent for controlling international waterways?
With diplomacy failing and costs mounting, what does a realistic endgame for the U.S.-Iran conflict actually look like?
The 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Global Economic Shockwaves, Energy Security Risks, and the Collapse of US-Iran Diplomacy
Overview
In July 2026, efforts to ease tensions in the Strait of Hormuz collapsed after a preliminary agreement failed. This breakdown was driven by Iran’s refusal to stop harassing commercial vessels, the U.S. insistence on keeping its naval forces in the area, and both sides’ unwillingness to compromise on sanctions and control of the Strait. As a result, open hostilities resumed, leading to intense military confrontations and a sharp rise in global oil prices. The renewed conflict has disrupted shipping, strained global supply chains, and stalled diplomatic efforts, highlighting deep disagreements over security and navigation rights in this vital waterway.