Big-Bulky Last-Mile Growth Slows to 5.1% as 30-Year Housing Low Cuts Demand

1 articles · Updated · FreightWaves · Jul 23

$10.6 billion big-and-bulky last-mile delivery market is now projected to grow 5.1% annually through 2027, down from 10.6% over the past eight years, according to Armstrong & Associates and the National Home Delivery Association.
Housing turnover fell to a 30-year low last year, with only 28 of every 1,000 homes changing hands, as high prices and mortgage rates in the mid-to-high 6% range curbed moves and purchases of furniture, appliances and other large items.
Margins are tightening as diesel prices after the Iran war, cargo insurance, scarce middle-mile capacity and labor shortages raise costs in a segment where delivery can consume 30% to 40% of total transportation expense.
Gross margins slipped to 27.5% last year from 28.9% in 2022, pushing 3PLs to raise prices, add routing and damage-assessment technology, and focus on execution-heavy services such as white-glove delivery, installation and returns.
Larger retailers and logistics groups are also reshaping competition: RXO last-mile revenue reached $1.2 billion, while vertical integration by Wayfair, Lowe’s and Amazon threatens smaller regional operators with consolidation or exit over the next 12 to 24 months.