Ukraine’s 40-day deep-strike campaign has reached its peak, hitting Russian infrastructure hard enough to trigger fuel shortages and wider public frustration inside Russia.
That pressure is meant to raise the cost of war and push the Kremlin toward a ceasefire, a strategy backed by major European NATO states and the White House.
Survey data cited in the report suggests about one-third of Russians view the war instrumentally and grow more open to negotiations as costs rise, while roughly one-quarter frame it as a moral struggle and demand harsher retaliation.
Russia’s wartime information space amplifies that hawkish minority: anti-war voices face tens of thousands of administrative cases and hundreds of criminal prosecutions, while pro-war critics can organize, fundraise and pressure officials more openly.
The report argues this leaves Putin in a 'pressure trap'—deep strikes may weaken support for him, but they are more likely to fuel escalation pressures than produce a negotiated peace.
As Ukraine's strikes escalate, are they pushing Russia towards peace talks or an even more destructive, wider war?
With Putin's approval falling and hawks gaining voice, who is truly in control of Russia's war strategy now?
Ukraine’s Deep Strike Campaign: Over 800,000 Russian Targets Hit, Fuel Crisis and Social Strain Escalate in 2026
Overview
Since June 26, 2026, Ukraine has intensified deep and intermediate-range strikes with the clear goal of triggering an oil crisis in Russia and putting major economic pressure on the Kremlin. By targeting critical infrastructure, especially oil refineries and supply routes—including in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014—Ukraine aims to isolate the peninsula and reshape both the battlefield and public perception at home. These actions not only disrupt Russia’s military logistics and energy exports but also shift the narrative in Ukraine, highlighting proactive efforts and countering fears of a stalemate. The campaign’s immediate impacts are visible in fuel shortages, rising costs, and growing strain on Russian society and military operations.