Prediction Markets Jump 48.7% to $113.8 Billion as Top Crypto Exchange Trading Drops 27.9%
Updated
Updated · The Motley Fool · Jul 27
Prediction Markets Jump 48.7% to $113.8 Billion as Top Crypto Exchange Trading Drops 27.9%
2 articles · Updated · The Motley Fool · Jul 27
Summary
$113.8 billion in Q2 prediction-market volume marked a 48.7% jump from Q1, even as spot trading on the top 10 centralized crypto exchanges fell 27.9%.
Fresh money appears to be driving much of that rise: Bitget Wallet found 60% of 857,000 Polymarket users had not traded crypto on-chain before joining.
Kalshi gained share in outcome markets, climbing to 58.9% from 42.4%, while Polymarket slipped to 30.2% from 35.8%.
Crypto's broader backdrop remained weak, with total market value ending June at $2.1 trillion, 52% below its October 2025 peak; Ethereum fell 25.4% in Q2 and Bitcoin dropped 14.2%.
The report suggests speculative outflows would hit altcoin-heavy ecosystems hardest—especially Solana—while platforms integrating outcome contracts, such as Hyperliquid after its May 2 HIP-4 upgrade, could capture some of that demand.