25,000 full-time jobs are forecast to be added in August, offset by a 5,000 drop in part-time work, pointing to another modest gain in overall employment.
6.5% unemployment is expected to hold steady because the labor force is seen rising by 10,000, though economists estimate the underlying rate could edge down to about 6.45%.
5,000 goods-sector jobs are projected to disappear, entirely outside manufacturing and construction, while services are expected to stay firmer with about 35,000 gains including a 5,000 public-sector rebound.
3.4% annual wage growth for permanent employees is expected, down from 3.7%, as base effects turn less favorable even with participation seen unchanged at 65.0% for a fourth straight month.
Fresh U.S. tariffs remain the main risk to that momentum, even as Canada’s economy appears to have returned to growth in Q2 and entered Q3 with some carry-through strength.