The Fed begins its fifth meeting of 2026 on Tuesday and will release its rate decision Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference.
Roughly 20% gains in crude during July, despite lower prices at the start of Fed week, are expected to keep headline inflation elevated and sharpen focus on the committee's policy stance.
Markets were mixed Monday as investors weighed falling oil and a semiconductor sell-off: the Dow rose 0.3% to 52,099, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.04% and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%.
Treasury yields eased slightly, with the 2-year at 4.316% and the 10-year at 4.647%, but both remained near their highest levels since early 2025 as traders awaited the Fed's signal.