BMO Sees China Gold Stockpile Top U.S. in 5 Years as Demand Drives 1/3 of Flows

Q: If China may ultimately need 18,000 tonnes for RMB credibility, how much more gold can it buy over the next five years?

If BMO’s 18,000-tonne benchmark is the target, China would still need roughly 12,700 to 12,800 tonnes beyond the about 5,200 to 5,300 tonnes BMO says the PBoC already holds. Over the next five years, though, the realistic amount it can buy is far smaller: BMO’s own estimate is “another 2,500 to 3,000 tonnes” in two to five years to reach at least a U.S.-level minimum reserve position. That implies an average pace of about 500 to 600 tonnes a year over five years. At that rate, China could add around 2,500 to 3,000 tonnes by 2031, taking official holdings to roughly 7,700 to 8,300 tonnes, still well short of the 18,000-tonne level tied to RMB credibility. Recent buying supports the idea of steady but not explosive accumulation. Official reserves rose to about 2,346 tonnes by June 2026, with monthly additions of roughly 10 tonnes in May and nearly 15 tonnes in June. That annualized pace is around 120 to 180 tonnes, below the level needed to add 2,500 to 3,000 tonnes in five years, suggesting any faster buildup would likely require less transparent channels, state-linked purchases outside headline reserve data, or a broader shift of privately held gold into strategic hands. So the five-year answer is not 12,800 tonnes. It is more likely several thousand tonnes, with BMO’s central estimate around 2,500 to 3,000 tonnes.

1 articles · Updated · Kitco NEWS · Jul 27

China could surpass U.S. gold holdings within five years, BMO said, estimating the country has already accumulated about 30,000 tonnes above ground—far above official figures.
BMO said that hidden stockpile and renewed Chinese buying help explain why gold has held above $4,000 an ounce despite weak Western demand and a months-long correction.
The bank estimates the PBOC holds about 5,200 tonnes, with China accounting for roughly 13% of above-ground global gold supply versus the U.S. at about 15%; official reserves are up just over 40 tonnes this year.
Last month’s 15-tonne purchase—the PBOC’s biggest since October 2023—fits a broader push to build RMB credibility and expand China’s role in price discovery through Hong Kong clearing, Shanghai links and deeper futures and OTC liquidity.