Wall Street Warns S&P 500 Faces 7.35% August-October Corrections as Energy, Yields Rise
Updated
Updated · Business Insider · Jul 27
Wall Street Warns S&P 500 Faces 7.35% August-October Corrections as Energy, Yields Rise
3 articles · Updated · Business Insider · Jul 27
Summary
Bank of America said the S&P 500’s August-to-October window has been the weakest three-month stretch since 1928, with average losses in down years reaching 7.35%.
Ned Davis Research said the setup looks more fragile because oil prices and bond yields are rising together — a combination that preceded bear markets in 1987, 1990 and 2022.
Seasonal and political patterns add pressure: Goldman Sachs said the S&P 500’s median return from Aug. 1 to Election Day in midterm years has been 0% since 1974, while JPMorgan called September the worst month, averaging a 1.3% drop.
Recent market action has turned weaker as AI-linked chip and memory stocks lose momentum and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 slipped below their 50-day moving averages.
Strategists still see a possible payoff after any late-summer slump, with BofA saying October-to-December has delivered gains 74% of the time since 1928.