Updated
Updated · South China Morning Post · Jul 27
CXMT Seen Lifting DRAM Share to 18% by 2028 as Wafer Capacity Reaches 550,000
Updated
Updated · South China Morning Post · Jul 27

CXMT Seen Lifting DRAM Share to 18% by 2028 as Wafer Capacity Reaches 550,000

3 articles · Updated · South China Morning Post · Jul 27

Summary

  • Nomura projects CXMT’s global DRAM share will climb from about 10% now to 18% by the end of 2028, driven by wafer expansion and stronger AI-related memory demand.
  • 550,000 12-inch wafers a month by end-2028 is the key growth target, up from 280,000 at the end of 2025 and 350,000 by end-2026, with new production lines planned in Shanghai.
  • 466% is how far CXMT shares surged after its listing, closing at 49 yuan and making it the most valuable company on mainland China’s stock market.
  • 3.28 trillion yuan in market value puts CXMT above Intel’s roughly $464 billion valuation, underscoring investor bets that capacity growth could more than double the stock’s value.

Insights

Can CXMT's massive $484 billion valuation survive the notoriously brutal memory cycle, or is this a tech bubble waiting to burst?
With export controls still looming, how will China's most valuable chipmaker crack the code to mass-produce advanced AI memory?