China’s Exports Cut Non-U.S. Developed-Market Goods Prices 0.6% as U.S. Tariffs Fail to Curb Flows
Updated
Updated · Fortune · Jul 27
China’s Exports Cut Non-U.S. Developed-Market Goods Prices 0.6% as U.S. Tariffs Fail to Curb Flows
3 articles · Updated · Fortune · Jul 27
Summary
Goldman Sachs said Chinese export growth has lowered goods prices in non-U.S. developed markets by 0.6% on average, with each 1-point rise in Chinese exports linked to a 0.5% price decline.
Cheap Chinese shipments have surged since the pandemic as Beijing pushes self-sufficiency and trims imports; Goldman data show makeup, skincare and auto imports down about 55%, with other categories more than 20% below pre-pandemic trends.
$43 billion of Chinese exports went to the U.S. in June and nearly $216 billion year to date by Chinese customs data, suggesting Trump-era tariffs did not significantly reduce U.S. demand for low-cost Chinese goods.
UBS said the gap with lower U.S. import figures points to tariff avoidance through mislabeling, while Europe’s manufacturers are already warning that Chinese firms are undercutting local producers on price.
Goldman expects the disinflationary effect to keep building in major developed markets outside the U.S., helping inflation return toward central-bank targets even as domestic industries face stronger Chinese competition.