Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 28
Traders Keep Europe 30s10s Steepener Bet as Oil Tops $100 and War Jolts Curves
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 28

Traders Keep Europe 30s10s Steepener Bet as Oil Tops $100 and War Jolts Curves

2 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 28

Summary

  • Europe’s 30s10s steepener remains in demand even after repeated reversals, with traders still betting 30-year swap rates will rise more than 10-year rates.
  • US attacks on Iran knocked the trade off course by reshaping inflation expectations, and renewed July strikes squeezed spreads again as oil climbed back above $100 a barrel last week.
  • A lull in fighting during May and June helped the position regain momentum, showing investors have kept conviction in the trade despite sharp yield-curve volatility.
  • The persistence of the bet underscores how geopolitical shocks and energy prices are driving Europe’s rates market, repeatedly testing one of the region’s most crowded trades.

Insights

With crude above $100 and stagflation looming, what hidden catalyst could finally break the European yield curve steepener trade?
How will the ECB balance inflation from geopolitical oil shocks without triggering a catastrophic collapse in long-dated sovereign bonds?
Could the ongoing Dutch pension reform secretly be masking a deeper structural vulnerability in Europe's 30-year swap markets?