Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jul 29
Bâli and Moyn Urge 4-Point Antiwar Pact for Multipolar Order as Arms Spending Hits $2.9 Trillion
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jul 29

Bâli and Moyn Urge 4-Point Antiwar Pact for Multipolar Order as Arms Spending Hits $2.9 Trillion

1 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jul 29

Summary

  • Aslı Bâli and Samuel Moyn argue that US-led unipolarity is in decline and should not be revived, proposing a four-point antiwar agenda built for a rivalrous multipolar world.
  • Their plan would tighten limits on self-defense claims under Article 51, reject annexation by force, bar powers from fueling proxy wars, and curb arms transfers that foreseeably enable aggression or atrocities.
  • The authors frame the bargain as deliberately narrow: mutual restraint based on self-interest rather than shared ideals, warning that unconstrained coercion by one power quickly becomes a precedent for its rivals.
  • They cite the war on terror, Russia's war in Ukraine and the US-Israeli war on Iran as evidence that preventive war, proxy conflict and selective enforcement have made the current order more violent.
  • Arms trade concentration underscores the challenge: world military spending reached nearly $2.9 trillion in 2025, with the US supplying 42% of global arms exports and the UN Security Council's permanent five nearly 68%.

Insights

Can a world without a dominant superpower truly police itself, or will a new antiwar pact just invite global chaos?
With military spending hitting trillions, will major global powers ever sacrifice their highly lucrative arms trades for mutual restraint?
If the old rules-based order was an illusion, what happens when rival nations are trusted to enforce their own boundaries?