Updated
Updated · The Globe and Mail · Jul 29
AI Selloff Looks Unlikely to Match 2000 or 2008 as Nasdaq Nears 10% Correction
Updated
Updated · The Globe and Mail · Jul 29

AI Selloff Looks Unlikely to Match 2000 or 2008 as Nasdaq Nears 10% Correction

3 articles · Updated · The Globe and Mail · Jul 29

Summary

  • Nasdaq is nearing a 10% correction and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has slipped into a bear market, but the broader selloff still looks unlikely to become a dotcom- or GFC-scale collapse.
  • Valuations are a key difference: the Nasdaq trades at about 30 times forward earnings versus 70 in March 2000, and many AI-linked companies are already large, profitable businesses rather than speculative startups.
  • Risk pockets remain visible — semiconductor stocks now make up a record 19% of the S&P 500, private credit has swollen to $3 trillion, and some hyperscaler default insurance costs are at record highs.
  • A repeat of 2008 is still seen as remote because housing then accounted for 16% of U.S. GDP and sat at the core of household wealth, while post-crisis bank regulation makes a systemwide freeze far less likely.
  • The upshot is that an AI bubble could still burst and hurt concentrated tech investors, but it is unlikely to trigger a 15-year recovery or a 5% U.S. economic contraction.

Insights

If AI leaders are profitable and valuations remain below 2000 extremes, what could still trigger a deeper chip-stock unwind?
Could the real winner of an AI bubble scare be power and data-center infrastructure rather than the chip stocks driving the hype?
Is the AI sell-off a normal correction, or are circular financing and private-credit leverage hiding a more dangerous crack beneath the boom?