Saudi Arabia Faces 3 Economic Tests as Aramco Q2 Profit Seen Rising 18%
Updated
Updated · sadanews.ps · Jul 28
Saudi Arabia Faces 3 Economic Tests as Aramco Q2 Profit Seen Rising 18%
3 articles · Updated · sadanews.ps · Jul 28
Summary
Thursday’s Q2 GDP release, followed by the state budget and Aramco results on August 4, will give the clearest read yet on how Iran’s war has hit Saudi growth, public finances and oil exports.
Analysts expect oil GDP to shrink on lower production, while the bigger question is whether the non-oil economy held up as government spending, trade and lending softened during the quarter.
Budget data may show spending eased from Q1’s war-driven surge but stayed above normal levels, leaving a deficit below the first quarter yet still off the 2026 target.
Aramco is forecast to post 123.6 billion riyals in net profit on 451 billion riyals of revenue, even as Barclays expects output near 7 million barrels of oil equivalent a day.
Investor focus will also turn to Aramco’s assessment of Houthi threats in the Red Sea and whether Saudi shipments can be rerouted without forcing deeper production cuts.
Are rising oil prices from Middle East conflicts actually saving Saudi Aramco's profits despite plummeting production volumes and shipping disruptions?
Can Saudi Arabia's economy survive the Red Sea crisis if its primary alternative oil pipeline is already running at maximum capacity?
Will soaring military spending and record deficits force the kingdom to quietly scale back its ambitious Vision 2030 diversification goals?