Prediction Markets Near $200 Million in 2026 Election Bets as 70 Races Stay Competitive
Updated
Updated · Ballotpedia News · Jul 31
Prediction Markets Near $200 Million in 2026 Election Bets as 70 Races Stay Competitive
3 articles · Updated · Ballotpedia News · Jul 31
Summary
$200 million has been wagered in election prediction markets this cycle, according to an NBC News analysis of contracts tied to races across the country.
Contract prices function as market-implied odds—55 cents signals a 55% chance—but the markets remain speculative and do not guarantee actual outcomes.
Polymarket shows Democrats favored in 264 of 504 congressional and gubernatorial general elections, Republicans in 236, with no odds listed for two House races.
Only 70 races are priced as competitive, with one party given a 51% to 80% chance; the closest House contest is Texas' 15th, where Bobby Pulido is at 50% versus Monica De La Cruz at 48%.
Election betting has deep roots, and modern U.S. prediction markets trace to the 1988 Iowa Presidential Stock Market; in 2024 alone, Polymarket users spent $3.2 billion on presidential contracts.