U.S., Israel Accepted Hormuz Risk as Nuclear Tradeoff, Reusing Blockade After March 4 Disruption
Updated
Updated · JNS.org · Jul 30
U.S., Israel Accepted Hormuz Risk as Nuclear Tradeoff, Reusing Blockade After March 4 Disruption
3 articles · Updated · JNS.org · Jul 30
Summary
March 4 marked the key trigger: after Iran moved against the Strait of Hormuz, Washington later activated a pre-planned naval blockade rather than scrambling for a new response.
Gen. Dan Caine had warned Donald Trump multiple times that Iran could try to close or harass the waterway, but Trump judged the nuclear threat more urgent and proceeded with the strikes.
April 13 brought the first blockade, a mid-June memorandum sought to reopen the Strait diplomatically, and when that effort collapsed in early July the blockade resumed immediately—evidence of deliberate sequencing.
A short-lived 20% U.S. shipping toll proposal and repeated reliance on the blockade still exposed gaps in economic planning and limited alternatives, especially with Gulf partners wary of escalation.
That constraint was political as well as military: 87% of respondents in a 40,000-person Arab Opinion Index opposed recognizing Israel, helping explain why Saudi Arabia reportedly denied support for a U.S. escort mission.