Perseids to Peak at 40 Meteors an Hour on Aug. 13 as New Moon Darkens Skies

Q: Will the unpredictable Blaze Star eruption finally happen this month to steal the show from the rare total solar eclipse?

Probably not — and nobody can say with confidence that T Coronae Borealis will erupt in August 2026. The Blaze Star remains one of the sky’s biggest wild cards. Astronomers agree T Coronae Borealis is overdue for a recurrent-nova outburst, and several studies have pointed to 2026 as a plausible year. One 2024 statistical analysis singled out June 25, 2026, as the most likely date, with Feb. 8, 2027 as a backup window if nothing happened. But those dates were never guarantees, and earlier predicted windows in 2024 and 2025 also passed quietly. What is known is that T CrB is being watched intensely because it has shown behavior reminiscent of the lead-up to its 1946 eruption. If it does blow, it could jump from about magnitude 10 to around magnitude 2 or 3, becoming visible to the naked eye for several days to about a week. That would make it a striking “new star” in Corona Borealis, though not brighter than the most dramatic events of August. Whether it would “steal the show” is another matter. The Aug. 12 total solar eclipse is a precisely timed, rare event with a defined path across Greenland, Iceland, Spain and nearby regions, and the Perseid peak follows the same night under excellent dark-sky conditions. By contrast, the Blaze Star could erupt at any time — or not this month at all. So the eclipse remains the month’s sure headline. The Blaze Star is the unpredictable bonus astronomers are still waiting for.

3 articles · Updated · American Meteor Society · Aug 13

Aug. 12-13 should offer the best Perseids viewing of 2026, with forecast rates near 40 meteors an hour in the Northern Hemisphere and 15 in the Southern Hemisphere.
A new moon on Aug. 12 will leave skies dark through the peak, while this weekend’s waning crescent should interfere only if observers face toward it.
Morning viewing remains far better than evening viewing: this week, observers at 45°N may see about 27 meteors an hour before dawn versus 5 in the evening.
The Perseid radiant sits in northwestern Perseus and rises highest in the last dark hour before dawn, making predawn watches away from urban light the best strategy.
Other active showers this week, including the kappa Cygnids and Anthelion source, are expected to stay minor, leaving the Perseids as the dominant display.