USGS Lifts Quake Prediction Accuracy to 79% With Fiber-Optic DAS, Beating ShakeAlert's 30%
Updated
Updated · Gizmodo · Jul 31
USGS Lifts Quake Prediction Accuracy to 79% With Fiber-Optic DAS, Beating ShakeAlert's 30%
3 articles · Updated · Gizmodo · Jul 31
Summary
USGS researchers said a fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensing system identified magnitude-5.4-and-above earthquakes with 79% precision, versus 30% for ShakeAlert, using only the first four seconds of data.
The approach turns tiny imperfections in broadband fiber cables into a large interferometer, then uses a machine-learning model trained on years of California borehole strainmeter records to estimate quake size quickly.
Tests ran on cables between Arcata and Eureka in Humboldt County—one of the most seismically active parts of the continental U.S.—through work with Cal Poly Humboldt.
The study targets weaknesses in existing early-warning systems, including ShakeAlert false alarms, and could extend monitoring to remote offshore areas where conventional instruments are hard to install.
Researchers and university partners said linking DAS to rural and submarine fiber networks could improve tsunami readiness and strengthen the case for broader broadband investment.