Geoffery Clark Backs 3 Saratoga Stakes Bets, Led by $35 on Commandment

Q: Will a synthetic-surface longshot pull off a stunning upset against a rival who won by 18 lengths at Saratoga this Saturday?

It’s possible, but Uncle Kef would still be an upset play rather than the likeliest winner in Saturday’s Saratoga Special. The case for the Florida-bred colt is real. Uncle Kef is 12-1 on the morning line, gets leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr., and has shown some talent in limited starts. He broke his maiden on synthetic at Presque Isle Downs and posted a sharp July 23 workout, going five furlongs in 59.80, the fastest of seven that morning. The handicapper’s angle is that in a lightly raced 2-year-old field, his stalking style could benefit if the pace gets contested. The challenge is substantial. Uncle Kef is making his first start on dirt and stepping into a Grade 2 at 6 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga. He was fifth last time in the Victoria Stakes at Woodbine, so he still has to prove he belongs with this group on a new surface. His main rivals bring stronger dirt credentials. Booked, the 7-5 favorite, enters off a six-length win in the Grade 3 Sanford at Saratoga and owns the field’s top published speed figure. Another dangerous opponent is Obliteration, who had won his first two starts by a combined 18 lengths and was viewed in outside analysis as one of the race’s major threats. So yes, a stunning upset is within reach if the race shape falls his way and Uncle Kef handles dirt immediately. But based on form, surface experience and proven Saratoga stakes performance, the safer view is that he is an intriguing longshot trying to upset more accomplished rivals.

2 articles · Updated · Fox News · Aug 1

$35 win on #5 Commandment is Clark’s top play on Saratoga’s Aug. 1 card, with the 6-5 favorite favored in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy’s $500,000 feature.
Clark also recommends $10 across the board on 12-1 #5 Uncle Kef in the $250,000 Saratoga Special and a $20 win bet on 7-2 #8 Deeper Learning in the $225,000 Lake George.
Commandment gets the strongest endorsement because Clark sees the Jim Dandy as effectively a four-horse race and views the other realistic contenders’ prices—no longer than 6-1—as too short to oppose him.
Deeper Learning’s appeal rests on the Flavien Prat-Chad Brown pairing and a prior Saratoga turf win at the same distance, while Uncle Kef is pitched as an overlay with Irad Ortiz aboard despite limited form.