PIK Scientists Find Global Warming Accelerated to 0.35°C a Decade Since 2015

Q: If the planet's warming curve is bending sharply upward, can humanity still prevent crossing the critical 1.5°C threshold before 2030?

Probably not before 2030 unless emissions fall much faster than they are now. The new analysis suggests the underlying warming rate has risen to about 0.35°C per decade since around 2015, after removing short-term effects such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions and solar cycles. That is markedly faster than the roughly 0.2°C per decade seen from 1970 to 2015, and the result appears across five major global temperature records with high statistical confidence. That does not mean 1.5°C is already definitively lost in the Paris sense. Climate scientists distinguish between a single year above 1.5°C and a sustained long-term average above it. Recent reports from Berkeley Earth, NOAA and Copernicus show 2024 was exceptionally hot and, in some datasets, above 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels for the calendar year. But a temporary annual exceedance is not the same as a permanent breach. Still, the margin for avoiding a sustained crossing before 2030 is now very small. If the recent pace continues, Rahmstorf and colleagues warn the threshold could be passed within this decade. The main lever remains the same: rapid cuts in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, alongside reductions in other greenhouse gases. Reaching net-zero CO2 as quickly as possible is the clearest way to slow the warming curve. So the realistic answer is that humanity can still influence whether 1.5°C is overshot briefly or locked in for the long term, but avoiding any crossing before 2030 now looks increasingly unlikely.

3 articles · Updated · ScienceDaily · Aug 2

0.35°C per decade is the estimated warming rate over the past 10 years after stripping out El Niño, volcanic and solar effects, versus just under 0.2°C from 1970 to 2015.
Five major temperature datasets—NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth and ERA5—showed the same shift, with more than 98% statistical certainty and signs of acceleration emerging around 2013-2015.
Two statistical methods, quadratic trend analysis and a piecewise linear model, both indicated the long-term warming curve is no longer rising at a constant pace.
2023 and 2024 remained the two hottest years on record even after adjustments, underscoring that the recent surge is not explained away by short-term natural variability.
PIK said the study measures the acceleration rather than its cause, but warned that if the past decade's rate persists, sustained warming could exceed the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit before 2030.

Sources

ScienceDaily52d ago

PIK Scientists Report Significant Acceleration in Global Warming to 0.35°C Per Decade

pik-potsdam.de52d ago

Significant acceleration of global warming since 2015 — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

jircas.go.jp52d ago

1455. Data Shows a Significant Acceleration of Global Warming Since 2015 | Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences | JIRCAS

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With global warming rates nearly doubling since 2015, what hidden factors are driving this sudden and alarming temperature surge?

If the planet's warming curve is bending sharply upward, can humanity still prevent crossing the critical 1.5°C threshold before 2030?

Could the recent reduction in global air pollution ironically be unmasking a much faster and more dangerous rate of climate change?

Surging Past 1.5°C: The Acceleration of Global Warming Since 2015 and What It Means for Our Future

Overview

Since 2015, global temperatures have surged sharply, driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions that trap heat and raise both air and ocean temperatures. As nations cleaned up air pollution and reduced aerosols, the hidden warming effect of greenhouse gases was unmasked, accelerating the rise. This warming has disrupted natural carbon sinks, like forests and oceans, and triggered extreme weather—heavier floods, supercharged storms, and expanding disease risks. The rapid melting of glaciers and rising sea levels threaten to push the planet past critical tipping points. In response, international policy is shifting toward stricter legal obligations and aggressive emission cuts, as demonstrated by the European Union’s success in reducing emissions.

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