Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 2
S&P 500 Shiller P/E Hits 40.5, a Level Seen Only 6 Times Since 1871
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 2

S&P 500 Shiller P/E Hits 40.5, a Level Seen Only 6 Times Since 1871

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 2

Summary

  • 40.5 — the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E stood near that level on July 27, pushing the market into a valuation zone reached only six times since 1871.
  • 17.4 is the ratio’s long-run average, making the current reading more than double its historical norm and reinforcing concerns that stock valuations have become stretched.
  • The Shiller P/E, or CAPE ratio, uses trailing 10-year earnings to smooth recessions and is widely used for apples-to-apples comparisons across more than 155 years of market history.
  • Record highs in the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq since early June have coincided with other risks, including surging margin debt and the possibility that higher rates could curb AI data-center spending.

Insights

Could the unprecedented concentration in AI mega-caps render traditional valuation metrics like the CAPE ratio entirely obsolete?
With the Shiller P/E flashing a rare warning, what hidden catalyst could trigger the unwinding of today's massive margin debt?
As market leverage hits record highs, how might a sudden tech correction spill over into hidden vulnerabilities like mortgage servicing rights?