Updated
Updated · DAWN.com · Jul 30
Pakistan Warns 9-10% July Inflation at Risk as Middle East Tensions Threaten External Outlook
Updated
Updated · DAWN.com · Jul 30

Pakistan Warns 9-10% July Inflation at Risk as Middle East Tensions Threaten External Outlook

3 articles · Updated · DAWN.com · Jul 30

Summary

  • Pakistan’s finance ministry said CPI inflation is likely to stay elevated at 9-10% in July as renewed Middle East tensions and US-Iran hostilities threaten the external outlook.
  • The ministry said higher energy prices, trade disruption and financial-market volatility could test the new fiscal year, though it expects exports and remittances to help keep the external sector resilient.
  • FY2026 stabilisation gains underpin that view: the current account posted only a $140 million deficit, IT exports hit a record $4.6 billion and S&P raised Pakistan’s sovereign rating to B from B-.
  • Islamabad still targets 4% GDP growth in FY2027, betting that fiscal discipline, structural reforms, stronger manufacturing and improved foreign-exchange buffers can absorb external shocks.

Insights

With reserves up, remittances at record highs, and a ratings upgrade, how prepared is Pakistan for a Strait of Hormuz disruption?
Is Pakistan’s stabilization truly durable, or could higher energy costs, weaker subsidies, and poor rainfall quickly unravel the recovery?