Pakistan Faces 11.7% Inflation Risk as Brent Crude Tops $100

1 articles · Updated · The Express Tribune · Aug 1

Brent crude above $100 a barrel has sharpened fears that Pakistan’s fragile recovery will give way to another inflation surge tied to imported energy costs.
May data from the first phase of the US-Iran conflict showed the vulnerability: inflation hit a two-year high of 11.7%, with transport costs jumping 36.8% year on year.
Analysts warn oil could exceed $120 if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, while the finance ministry says energy-price relief depends on a durable US-Iran peace deal.
Remittances from key Middle East sources are also expected to weaken, adding pressure on foreign exchange, businesses and employment as firms struggle with higher costs.
Islamabad is weighing targeted subsidies, but the report argues temporary relief cannot replace deeper changes to Pakistan’s energy dependence and fiscal framework.