Prediction Markets Face Scrutiny Over Drug-Approval Bets as Insider-Trading Fears Spread
Updated
Updated · Deseret News · Aug 3
Prediction Markets Face Scrutiny Over Drug-Approval Bets as Insider-Trading Fears Spread
3 articles · Updated · Deseret News · Aug 3
Summary
Cancer patients and critics are condemning prediction-market contracts tied to FDA drug approvals, arguing wagers on potentially life-saving treatments turn survival into a tradeable event.
Kalshi and similar platforms say the contracts can signal drug value for investors, but they bar insiders including trial staff, FDA regulators and patients in studies—excluding many people with the most relevant information.
That gap has sharpened concerns that uninformed gambling or illicit information could drive trading, after reports that a Trump teleprompter operator made nearly $100,000 betting on speech-word markets.
Scrutiny has already widened beyond drugs to contracts on military strikes and wildfires, with lawmakers pressing the CFTC to curb disaster-related bets over arson, public-safety and state-regulation concerns.