Burry Keeps 1 Million-Share Nvidia Put as S&P 500 Hits 7,737

Q: If Burry is right about a fragile tech bubble, what specific metric will finally force him to abandon his unprofitable Nvidia short?

There is no single publicly stated metric. Burry’s own trigger is whether the Nvidia trade moves “decisively against” him, meaning a loss threshold he has not disclosed. The clearest hard marker in the available reporting is the structure of his position: put options on about 1 million Nvidia shares with a $110 strike expiring in 2027. Those puts were already described as deeply underwater while Nvidia traded near record highs above $200. That suggests the practical pressure point is not one headline valuation ratio, but whether Nvidia keeps proving the bearish thesis wrong through sustained price strength and fundamentals that extend beyond his time horizon. In practice, the metric most likely to force an exit is Nvidia’s share price staying high enough, long enough, to make recovery in those 2027 puts implausible. Markets will watch that alongside the operating data that matter most for the bull case: data-center revenue, hyperscaler capex commitments, gross margins, and forward guidance. If those keep accelerating and Nvidia continues to hold or expand its roughly mid-20s forward P/E while revenue growth remains exceptionally strong, the short becomes harder to justify. So the answer is simple: not a published valuation trigger, but a decisive adverse move in Nvidia’s stock and fundamentals — especially persistent price strength that leaves his 2027 $110 puts with too little chance of paying off.

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 5

S&P 500 closed at 7,737 on Aug. 4—up 1.79% and its first record high in two months—yet Michael Burry told subscribers he still sees a possible 1987-type fall and will not cover his shorts.
VIX at 15.86 underpins his warning: Burry says low volatility pulls in momentum and volatility-targeting funds, adding leverage that can mechanically drive markets higher before a sharp reversal.
His short book targets Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, Micron, Caterpillar, Applied Materials and SOXX; all are profitable except a 2027 Nvidia put tied to 1,000,000 shares at a $110 strike.
Burry says he will exit only if positions move decisively against him, extending a bearish call that now stands in direct contrast to fresh highs in the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow.