BMI Cuts Egypt 2026/27 Growth Forecast to 5% as Inflation Delays Rate Cuts

2 articles · Updated · ARAB NEWS · Aug 2

Egypt’s economy is now seen growing 5% in fiscal 2026/27, down from BMI’s 5.2% forecast, as rising regional risks cloud what would still be the country’s strongest expansion in four years.
Inflation averaging 14.4% in 2026 and 10.8% in 2027 is expected to keep the central bank’s policy corridor at 19%-20% through 2026, with 400 basis points of cuts pushed into 2027.
June headline inflation eased to 14.3% from 16.5% in May, but BMI said higher oil prices, a likely fuel-price hike and pound weakness will keep price pressures elevated.
The Egyptian pound is forecast at 47-51 per dollar, likely staying in the weaker half of that range in late 2026 and potentially sliding to 50-55 if geopolitical tensions worsen.
IMF approval last week unlocked about $1.8 billion and signaled macroeconomic stabilization, while BMI still expects public investment, exports, agriculture and recovering gas output to support growth.