Updated

Updated · Fox News · Aug 7

Rays Back Drew Rasmussen Against Mariners as Logan Gilbert Has Allowed 16 of 17 Homers at Home

Updated

Updated · Fox News · Aug 7

Rays Back Drew Rasmussen Against Mariners as Logan Gilbert Has Allowed 16 of 17 Homers at Home

Q: With Logan Gilbert surrendering nearly all his homers at home, can Tampa Bay’s heavy hitters exploit this glaring weakness Thursday?

Yes — Tampa Bay is well-positioned to punish that weakness, although Gilbert is still good enough to limit the damage if his command is sharp. The case for the Rays is strong. Gilbert has allowed nearly all of his home runs at T-Mobile Park this season, with reports putting that split at either 12 in 45 home innings or 16 of 17 overall. That is a real red flag against a Tampa Bay lineup that has already seen him well, batting .296 against him as a team. In a recent meeting, the Rays also went 7-for-16 against Gilbert’s four-seam fastball, a sign they are tracking his most important pitch effectively. Tampa Bay also brings the right kind of bats into this matchup. Junior Caminero’s power stands out, and Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda give the Rays enough quality contact to turn Gilbert’s home-run issue into extra-base damage even if the ball does not leave the yard every time. Gilbert has also allowed multiple runs in each of his last four starts, which suggests this is not just a one-game fluke. That said, Gilbert remains a high-strikeout, low-WHIP arm, so this is not an automatic blowup spot. But when that profile is paired with his unusual home vulnerability and a Rays offense that has had success against him, Tampa Bay’s middle of the order has a clear opportunity to exploit it Thursday.

Q: Despite Gilbert’s home vulnerabilities, does the Mariners' severe offensive drought make betting the under the smartest play for this matchup?

Yes — the under is a strong play, and likely the safer angle than picking a side. The case starts with Seattle’s offense, which has been one of the weakest and coldest in this matchup. The Mariners have been averaging roughly 3.1 runs over their last five games, went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position in a recent loss, and have scored only 12 runs during a five-game skid cited in the supporting reports. Against Rasmussen, that is a serious concern. He enters with a 2.91 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and dominant recent form, including a seven-inning, 13-strikeout scoreless outing. He has also held Seattle hitters to a .222 average in prior meetings. The only real threat to the under is Tampa Bay doing most of the scoring on its own against Gilbert, whose home splits are troubling. He has allowed the bulk of his home runs at T-Mobile Park and has given up multiple runs in each of his last four starts. Tampa Bay has also hit him well historically, batting .296 against him. Still, Gilbert’s overall season numbers remain strong — 3.46 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 139 strikeouts — and T-Mobile Park remains a relatively run-suppressing environment. With both starters capable of missing bats and Seattle’s lineup in a prolonged slump, a game total around 7 or 7.5 makes the under reasonable. So the sharper read is that Tampa Bay remains the better side, but the under is very defensible because Seattle’s offense may not contribute enough to push the game over.

3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Aug 7

Drew Rasmussen takes the mound for Tampa Bay at 10-5 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, giving the Rays a clear pitching edge against Seattle.
Logan Gilbert enters at 8-6 with a 3.46 ERA and 139 strikeouts, but he has yielded multiple runs in each of his last four starts and 16 of his 17 homers in Seattle.
Tampa Bay has handled Gilbert well, batting .296 against the right-hander, while Mariners hitters have managed just .222 in 45 at-bats against Rasmussen.
Seattle added Taylor Ward at the trade deadline, yet the Mariners remain four games under .500 despite a rotation viewed as one of the roster's main strengths.
The matchup reinforces the contrast between a Rays club thriving on depth and development and a Mariners team still searching for consistency in a winnable AL West.