Analyst Backs Ohtani, Chourio, Adell for August 7 HR Props at +288 to +415

Q: Despite Keider Montero's recent shutout brilliance, why are analysts still heavily targeting Rafael Devers for a Friday night home run prop?

Analysts are still backing Rafael Devers because the prop is driven more by the specific hitter-pitcher matchup and Devers’ recent contact quality than by Keider Montero’s last outing alone. Devers comes into Friday in solid form, with the article citing a .320 average, a .913 OPS, a 10% strikeout rate and contact on 89% of his swings in the recent sample used for the bet. Broader recent splits also support the idea that his power is trending up, with multiple homers over his last 10 to 15 games and strong production against right-handed pitching. Montero’s recent shutout of the Astros is noted, but analysts see underlying traits that still make him vulnerable to a left-handed power bat like Devers. In the matchup data referenced for Friday, Montero has allowed a 64% elevation rate and a 37.7% hard-hit rate to left-handed hitters on the road. For a home run prop, those are key indicators because elevated, hard-hit contact is exactly what bettors want from a slugger matchup. The betting case is also about price. At roughly +388, Devers does not need to be likely to homer more often than not; he only needs to do it often enough to beat that implied probability. Analysts believe his matchup rating above 76%, his strong recent swing decisions and contact, and Montero’s road split against lefties create enough value to justify the play even after Montero’s excellent recent performance.

3 articles · Updated · DraftKings · Aug 7

Shohei Ohtani leads the analyst’s August 7 home run prop picks at +288 after two homers Wednesday and a .484/.556/.968 line over his last eight games.
Merrill Kelly’s 7.17 xERA, 13.2% barrel rate allowed and 2.03 homers per nine to left-handed hitters underpin the Ohtani case.
Jackson Chourio is the longest-priced featured pick at +415, backed by homers in two of his last three games and Zebby Matthews’ 2.51 road HR/9 before the Twins right-hander’s recall from Triple-A.
Jo Adell rounds out the trio at +364, with a .573 slugging percentage and 150 wRC+ against lefties facing White Sox rookie Noah Schultz, who carries a 5.82 ERA and weak whiff and barrel metrics.
The latest card shifts from an earlier August 7 prop list that also featured Adell but highlighted Alec Burleson and Rafael Devers instead of Chourio and Ohtani.