Updated
Updated · FreightWaves · Aug 9
US Shippers Shift 10% More Freight to Rail as Long-Haul Trucking Hits 2026 Low
Updated
Updated · FreightWaves · Aug 9

US Shippers Shift 10% More Freight to Rail as Long-Haul Trucking Hits 2026 Low

3 articles · Updated · FreightWaves · Aug 9

Summary

  • Domestic intermodal container use is up 10% from 2025, while long-haul truck tenders are flat and have dropped to their lowest level of 2026 despite strong import flows.
  • Truckload costs are driving the shift: Chicago-to-Elizabeth, NJ contract rates have jumped 31% including fuel versus 5% for intermodal, and Atlanta-to-Elizabeth rates are up nearly 60% versus 6%.
  • The divergence is most visible in inland hubs tied to imports, with Chicago domestic container volumes up 9% year over year and Atlanta up more than 20%, compared with Los Angeles at 3%.
  • Rail still faces limits as peak season approaches in September and October; drayage constraints and likely double-digit intermodal rate hikes could narrow the current cost advantage.
  • Tighter downstream inventories also leave shippers more exposed to sudden demand shocks, a scenario that could quickly favor trucking again and complicate any prolonged move away from road freight.

Insights

As long-haul trucking demand collapses, is the massive rail discount a permanent market shift or a temporary illusion?
Could sudden inventory shortages force shippers back to expensive highway freight, abruptly ending the rail industry's historic boom?
With intermodal bottlenecks worsening, will shippers face a catastrophic supply chain freeze during the upcoming peak season?