Nvidia's China AI Chip Share Seen Falling to 8% by 2026 as Huawei Reaches 50%
Updated
Updated · marketscale.com · Aug 9
Nvidia's China AI Chip Share Seen Falling to 8% by 2026 as Huawei Reaches 50%
3 articles · Updated · marketscale.com · Aug 9
Summary
Bernstein forecasts Nvidia's share of China's AI chip market will plunge from about 40% in 2025 to 8% by the end of 2026, while Huawei rises to roughly 50%.
U.S. export controls blocked Nvidia's most advanced chips and helped steer Chinese procurement toward domestic suppliers, a shift analysts say had largely taken hold before limited H200 sales were allowed.
Huawei's Ascend 950 is now viewed as roughly comparable to Nvidia's H200, and Huawei has already touted large AI clusters built from thousands of chips, strengthening its domestic position.
Nvidia still leads at the cutting edge: Chinese developers training frontier models continue to rely on its hardware, with demand inside China exceeding supply and some chips reportedly smuggled in.
Outside China, Nvidia is deepening enterprise ties through a Siemens partnership on agentic AI for manufacturing, underscoring a widening split between Chinese and Western AI infrastructure ecosystems.
As Nvidia's Chinese market share plummets to 8% in 2026, will forced tech decoupling ultimately backfire by accelerating Huawei's global AI dominance?
As global AI infrastructure splits, how will multinational companies survive the crushing costs of maintaining entirely separate Western and Chinese tech stacks?