CBA Sees RBA Holding Rates Through 2026 as Inflation Forecasts Face Downgrades
Updated
Updated · investinglive.com · Aug 9
CBA Sees RBA Holding Rates Through 2026 as Inflation Forecasts Face Downgrades
3 articles · Updated · investinglive.com · Aug 9
Summary
CBA expects the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged at Tuesday’s August meeting and stay on hold through the rest of 2026, with no dovish pivot despite softer data.
Lower inflation, slower growth, a faster-cooling labor market and weaker housing underpin that call, leading CBA to expect higher unemployment forecasts and lower headline and trimmed-mean inflation projections.
Hawkish rhetoric is still likely, with the RBA expected to repeat that it could hike again if needed even as updated forecasts open the door to easing later in the cycle.
Middle East escalation remains the main wildcard: CBA says higher third-quarter cost pass-through tied to Hormuz risks could push the RBA to sound more hawkish than domestic data alone would justify.
For markets, that mix points to limited near-term direction for the Australian dollar unless the forecasts or Governor Michele Bullock’s post-decision comments materially surprise.