Updated
Updated · MCT Trading · Aug 10
July Mortgage Lock Volume Falls 6.06% as September Rate-Hike Odds Drop to 42%
Updated
Updated · MCT Trading · Aug 10

July Mortgage Lock Volume Falls 6.06% as September Rate-Hike Odds Drop to 42%

3 articles · Updated · MCT Trading · Aug 10

Summary

  • MCT’s July data showed total mortgage lock volume fell 6.06% from June, with purchase locks down 6.08%, rate-term refinances off 9.55% and cash-out refinances easing 3.66%.
  • 30-year mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in more than a year, extending June’s slowdown and weighing on borrower demand even as the Fed held rates steady in July.
  • August 7 jobs data then shifted rate expectations: nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 versus forecasts for an 80,000 gain, and May-June payrolls were revised down by 103,000, cutting implied September hike odds to 42% from 55% a day earlier.
  • July note rates ranged from 6.64% for purchase loans to 6.98% for cash-out refinances, while builder locks averaged 5.62% versus 6.78% for non-builders, underscoring builders’ pricing advantage in a purchase-led market.

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