Romania Central Bank Seen Holding Rates at 6.50% as July Inflation Slows to 7.6%
Updated
Updated · ING Think · Aug 7
Romania Central Bank Seen Holding Rates at 6.50% as July Inflation Slows to 7.6%
3 articles · Updated · ING Think · Aug 7
Summary
August 10 is expected to bring another hold from the National Bank of Romania, extending the pause in place since August 2024 and pushing the first projected rate cut to January 2027.
6.50% is likely to stay in place because inflation remains elevated, while external uncertainty and Romania’s large fiscal and current-account deficits argue for a cautious stance.
July CPI due Wednesday is forecast to slow sharply to about 7.6% year on year from 10.4% in June, but mainly because of favorable base effects rather than broad easing in price pressures.
Month-on-month inflation is still seen accelerating slightly, underscoring sticky underlying pressures and leaving risks tilted upward if Middle East tensions lift energy prices or risk aversion triggers emerging-market outflows.