Nomura Sees Solid H2 2026 Growth as Fed Holds and Core PCE Hits 3.2%
Updated
Updated · Nomura Connects · Aug 10
Nomura Sees Solid H2 2026 Growth as Fed Holds and Core PCE Hits 3.2%
2 articles · Updated · Nomura Connects · Aug 10
Summary
Nomura kept a broadly positive H2 2026 global outlook, saying the world economy stayed resilient in the first half despite the Iran war, higher energy prices, rising inflation and higher bond yields.
3.2% Q4 core PCE inflation underpins its U.S. call for the Fed to stay on hold indefinitely, even as economists warn the balance of risks tilts toward later tightening if policymakers fall behind inflation.
0.3% quarterly euro-area growth in both H1 quarters supports a modest near-term view, with Nomura expecting just one more ECB hike in September to lift the deposit rate to 2.50%.
Three more BOJ hikes are now Nomura's base case—in October 2026 and March and July 2027—while China is expected to lean on more bond issuance and fiscal spending rather than rate or RRR cuts.
US-Iran tensions, El Niño, a possible AI setback, fiscal fragility and reduced central-bank forward guidance are the main threats to an outlook otherwise supported by AI investment, fiscal stimulus and Asia's chip cycle.