Updated
Updated · Kiplinger's Personal Finance · Aug 11
Nasdaq Falls 0.6% as Traders Await July CPI and Weigh 49.9% September Rate-Hike Odds
Updated
Updated · Kiplinger's Personal Finance · Aug 11

Nasdaq Falls 0.6% as Traders Await July CPI and Weigh 49.9% September Rate-Hike Odds

3 articles · Updated · Kiplinger's Personal Finance · Aug 11

Summary

  • U.S. stocks drifted lower Tuesday, with the Nasdaq down 0.6%, the S&P 500 off 0.3% and the Dow lower 0.3%, as investors held back before Wednesday’s July CPI report.
  • 49.9% odds of a September 25-basis-point Fed hike, according to CME FedWatch, kept inflation data at the center of trading after a cooler-than-expected July jobs report.
  • Oil and yields moved only modestly—WTI crude rose 1.6% to $83.45 a barrel while the 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.692%—easing some pressure after the prior session’s Hormuz-driven energy surge.
  • 88% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and 86% beat earnings estimates, with aggregate profit growth at 50.4%, helping mute July’s volatility even as Middle East risks and inflation uncertainty linger.
  • AI earnings remain a near-term focus, with CoreWeave and Super Micro due after Tuesday’s close and Nvidia’s results later this month expected to cap a reporting season dominated by hyperscaler spending.

Insights

Will escalating Middle East tensions and soaring oil prices force the Fed's hand before AI productivity can actually cool inflation?
Could a hidden statistical flaw in how we measure AI software prices be tricking the Fed into keeping rates too high?
Are massive AI financing packages building the tech future, or just creating a dangerous loop of artificial demand?