Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 12
Dollar Rises 0.17% After 3.4% U.S. CPI, Yen Slips Back Toward 159.45
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 12

Dollar Rises 0.17% After 3.4% U.S. CPI, Yen Slips Back Toward 159.45

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 12

Summary

  • The dollar index climbed to 99.98 after July CPI matched forecasts, with headline inflation easing to 3.4% from 3.5% and core CPI to 2.5% from 2.6%.
  • Fed rate-hike bets still softened after last week's weak jobs report: futures priced a 40% chance of a September move, down from 44% before the CPI data and 55% a week ago.
  • The yen weakened 0.1% to 159.45 per dollar, extending its retreat after late-July U.S.-Japan intervention as analysts said stable markets could encourage renewed short-yen carry trades.
  • Higher oil prices also underpinned the greenback as traders tracked Strait of Hormuz talks, Middle East shipping attacks and an impasse in efforts to end the Iran war.
  • Attention now shifts to Thursday's PPI, Friday's retail sales and the Fed's September projections, with markets assigning a 56% probability of a rate hike by October.

Insights

Will mounting political pressure force the Bank of Japan to abandon rate hikes, leaving the yen defenseless against a relentless dollar?
With finite reserves draining, are US and Japanese officials secretly losing the battle against speculators betting on a historic currency crash?
Could a sudden shock to the yen carry trade trigger a massive, disorderly collapse in global crypto and US asset markets?