Updated
Updated · Sydney Morning Herald · Aug 11
RBA Holds Rate at 4.35%, Says 20% Home Price Fall Would Not Threaten Stability
Updated
Updated · Sydney Morning Herald · Aug 11

RBA Holds Rate at 4.35%, Says 20% Home Price Fall Would Not Threaten Stability

3 articles · Updated · Sydney Morning Herald · Aug 11

Summary

  • Michele Bullock said the RBA could still raise rates after unanimously holding the cash rate at 4.35%, with no rate cut discussed and inflation still seen above target until end-2027.
  • 3.8% inflation in June came in below the RBA’s May forecast of 4.8%, but the bank said oil-supply disruption from the Iran war and strong business investment are keeping price pressures alive.
  • Data-centre construction was singled out as an inflation risk, with Bullock warning the AI boom could strain already tight construction capacity before any productivity gains arrive.
  • A 20% housing-price drop would leave only about 5% of households in negative equity, Bullock said, arguing that would hurt owners but not endanger well-capitalised banks.
  • ANZ now expects capital-city prices to fall 10.6% from peak to trough, including a 14.5% slide in Sydney, as restrictive rates, tax changes and weak affordability cool the market.

Insights

With consumer spending surprisingly accelerating, what hidden trigger could force the RBA to hike rates again in 2026?
Could the unexpected resilience in Australian household spending delay the highly anticipated 2027 interest rate cuts?
As regional property prices surge, is the RBA's rate pause secretly fueling another massive housing bubble?