Allianz Warns Super El Niño Could Lift Food Prices 5% as Asia Faces Drought Risk

3 articles · Updated · Fortune India · Aug 11

India and Southeast Asia face heightened drought and agricultural disruption as the 2026-27 El Niño emerges, with Allianz Research saying it could become the strongest climate event in more than a decade.
A typical El Niño lifts global food prices about 5% within a year, the report said, while the 1982-83 and 1997-98 events caused cumulative global income losses of ₹4.1 trillion and ₹5.7 trillion over five years.
Sugar, palm oil and rice face the highest risk because drought, low inventories and possible export curbs could trigger price volatility; cocoa and robusta coffee also face supply pressure.
Indonesia is seen as the most exposed to food-driven inflation in Asia, while Malaysia and the Philippines are more insulated; central banks in the Philippines, Indonesia and India may delay easing or hike into 2027.
Allianz said the shock would be uneven rather than broadly inflationary, hurting Asian producers and importers while improving grain and oilseed conditions in parts of South America.

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Fortune India41d ago

Allianz Research: Super El Niño Threatens Drought, Agricultural Disruption in Asia

Reuters41d ago

Decades of farm gains, inventories strengthen food system against 'super' El Nino | Reuters

CNA40d ago

Drought, extreme heat and rain bombs: Southeast Asia braces for prolonged pain of incoming Super El Niño - CNA

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