S&P Warns 2026 El Niño Will Lift Asia-Pacific Food Prices as India Inflation Risk Stays at 5%
Updated
Updated · dailypioneer.com · Aug 10
S&P Warns 2026 El Niño Will Lift Asia-Pacific Food Prices as India Inflation Risk Stays at 5%
3 articles · Updated · dailypioneer.com · Aug 10
Summary
S&P Global Ratings said El Niño conditions developing in 2026 are likely to push up food prices across Asia-Pacific, with households in India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines especially exposed to fresh supply shocks.
Weaker rainfall is the main transmission channel, cutting agricultural output, reducing hydropower generation and raising risks of vegetation fires and haze, though S&P said the broader macroeconomic hit should remain manageable.
India has built grain and food buffers for affected crops as of July 2026 and is coordinating with farmers at district level, while other economies have expanded stockpiles, import planning and water-management measures.
The WMO said last month that strong El Niño conditions were developing and should intensify from August through October, bringing above-normal global temperatures and sharper weather disruptions.
The RBI last week flagged deficient and uneven monsoon rains as a risk to agriculture and rural demand, but kept FY27 retail inflation projected at 5% on expectations that food stocks and supply management will cushion the shock.