US Forecast Sees 2026 Murder Rate Falling to 3-3.8 per 100,000, Lowest on Record
Updated
Updated · Jeff-alytics · Aug 11
US Forecast Sees 2026 Murder Rate Falling to 3-3.8 per 100,000, Lowest on Record
2 articles · Updated · Jeff-alytics · Aug 11
Summary
A new model projects the 2026 US murder rate at 3.0 to 3.8 per 100,000, which would be well below any FBI-recorded rate since 1960.
The forecast combines monthly Crime Index data from nearly 600 agencies with FBI Crime Data Explorer reports, using backtesting and a 90% confidence interval to estimate 2025 and 2026 totals.
The same model expects 2025 to land at 4.1 to 4.4 per 100,000 and says 2024's initial FBI estimate of 16,935 murders will likely be revised up to about 17,474.
At that pace, the US would record roughly 10,000 fewer murder victims in 2026 than in each of 2020, 2021 and 2022, extending a decline that began in 2023.