Polls Overstated Progressives by 20 Points in 2 Primaries, Clouding Michigan and Wisconsin Results
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Aug 14
Polls Overstated Progressives by 20 Points in 2 Primaries, Clouding Michigan and Wisconsin Results
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Aug 14
Summary
Two August primaries sharply missed polling expectations: Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan’s Senate race by just 1 point after double-digit leads, while Francesca Hong lost Wisconsin’s governor primary despite a 20-point edge.
Primary polling is especially error-prone because turnout is low, races are volatile and voter preferences can shift quickly, making late movement hard to capture.
Wisconsin was the bigger miss, but the race was unusually chaotic: three establishment-backed candidates dropped out, including eventual winner David Crowley, who later re-entered and won.
Back-to-back errors overstating the same faction have raised broader questions about whether polls are misreading moderate strength against the progressive left, though two races are too few for a firm conclusion.