Updated
Updated · paradigm.xyz · Aug 11
RSI Simulator Launches Web Game to Model AI R&D Economics, Highlighting 4 Recursive Self-Improvement Risks
Updated
Updated · paradigm.xyz · Aug 11

RSI Simulator Launches Web Game to Model AI R&D Economics, Highlighting 4 Recursive Self-Improvement Risks

2 articles · Updated · paradigm.xyz · Aug 11

Summary

  • A new web game and companion explorer let users run an AI lab, allocating labor, compute and data to model when recursive self-improvement becomes self-sustaining.
  • The tools are built from economic models in The Economics of Recursive Self-Improvement and related research, but the creators say the parameters are tuned for teaching rather than forecasting.
  • Four main takeaways emerged: weak links can dominate, recursive self-improvement may be compute- or data-constrained, acceleration may arrive in spurts, and early breakthroughs could be narrow rather than fully general.
  • Elasticities drive the model’s outcomes, especially how strongly new discoveries respond to current model capabilities, making up-to-date measurement critical to judging AI progress.
  • The release reflects a broader push to use interactive models to understand AI scaling laws, bottlenecks and possible inflection points in future research speed.

Insights

If AI self-improvement happens in unpredictable, narrow bursts, how can humanity possibly govern the sudden transition to superintelligence?
Could hard bottlenecks in raw compute and data permanently prevent the much-feared artificial superintelligence runaway effect?
If an AI intelligence explosion requires a 15% efficiency threshold, what happens when current models stall at just 9%?