Updated
Updated · Morningstar · Aug 12
Nebius Revenue Jumps 454% to $582 Million as GPU Contract Prices Reach $40 Million per MW
Updated
Updated · Morningstar · Aug 12

Nebius Revenue Jumps 454% to $582 Million as GPU Contract Prices Reach $40 Million per MW

3 articles · Updated · Morningstar · Aug 12

Summary

  • $582 million in second-quarter revenue marked 454% growth for Nebius, as average GPU contract value per megawatt climbed from $12 million early this year to $20 million in Q2.
  • Some third-quarter contracts are already being signed at $40 million per MW, with management favoring three-to-six-month deals to capture rising spot rates amid tight AI infrastructure supply.
  • Nebius still posted a negative 30% operating margin, but Morningstar said higher-priced contracts should lift profitability in late 2026 and 2027 and raised its fair value estimate to $150 from $120.
  • $30 billion in projected free-cash-flow burn over five years means Nebius will likely need more debt and equity funding, leaving its expansion highly sensitive to AI spending and investor sentiment.

Insights

Could Nebius's massive $25 billion capex and heavy reliance on debt backfire if the explosive demand for AI compute suddenly cools down?
Does Nvidia's $2 billion stake in Nebius signal a permanent shift in cloud dominance or just a temporary hardware supply bottleneck?
With over 4 gigawatts of power secured, will Nebius's aggressive AI factory expansion trigger an unprecedented strain on global energy grids?